If you have opened your Twitter, checked your Facebook, scrolled on a news app or generally consumed media lately, you’ve likely been confronted with a torrent of information, opinions, complaints and differing statistics regarding COVID-19. It is overwhelming, to say the least, because on top of dealing with concern for our own and our families’ safety and sudden changes in work and class environments, many of us are unsure whom or what to trust for guidance on handling the situation.
In order to be responsible citizens, it’s important that we educate ourselves as best we can about the state of the pandemic and related issues. This means understanding the data available to us and being aware of the quality of different information sources.
Troy Riggs, professor of mathematics at Union University, said there are three different statistical approaches used to model COVID-19. The SIR or SEIR model uses available numbers like the rate at which people infect one another to predict how the disease will spread. “Agent-based” models, which have been recently used to project influenza outbreaks, use virtual worlds to simulate how the virus will spread. Finally, curve matching predicts future outcomes by comparing sections of growth curves from other regions to the curves the U.S. is experiencing. Each of these approaches has its strengths and weaknesses, and readers comparing models may have noticed inconsistencies between different sources. Riggs pointed out that these inconsistencies arise from a lack of data, not the models themselves.
“All statistical models are dependent on the amount of data and quality of data that are available,” said Riggs. “For various reasons (lack of transparency by governments, a disease spread by those who are asymptomatic), it has been a challenge to obtain timely and reliable data.”
In addition to this challenge, the choices individuals make during this time will have an impact on the spread of the virus that the models cannot take into account.
“We should realize that these projections have more in common with retirement planning than with weather forecasts,” said Riggs. “The big difference is the human factor. The laws of physics don’t change, but the behavior of humans in both the financial markets and in the grocery markets is unpredictable.”
Both Riggs and Sean Evans, department chair and professor of political science at Union University, emphasized seeking out experts in the respective fields of the information for which you are looking.
“If you want to know about the health implications of COVID-19, pay attention to public health professionals,” said Evans. “If we are talking about opening the economy, listen to the economic professionals. If you want to understand the political implications of COVID-19, pay attention to the political people. When people move outside their lane of expertise, ignore them.”
Evans recommended using the acronym CARS (Credible, Accurate, Reasonable, Sourced) when deciding what information to trust regarding COVID-19.
“Credible people are those with the credentials to speak to their expertise and don’t go outside of it,” said Evans. “Accurate sources are up-to-date, factual, detailed, exact and comprehensive. Reasonable sources are fair, objective, moderate/likely (if it sounds outlandish, it probably is) and consistent (doesn’t contradict itself in the article). Sourced articles have links, so one can verify their information.”
Once you have identified quality sources, you will likely find a variety of opinions related to the political aspects of handling COVID-19. Evans suggested reading sources from different points of view in order to determine their collective validity and said that concerned citizens, especially Christians, ought to respond to federal, state or local policies concerning COVID-19 “with respect and patience.” He also said that we are not as divided in opinion as we might think.
“Polls show that majorities in both parties agree on most of the underlying factors and proposals,” Evans said. “The differences that we do see are partly because we are polarized on many issues, so it is natural that we will be polarized in this issue.”
On an individual level, it is important for us to be able to lovingly disagree and support one another as best as we can.
“People who disagree should realize that people may have different perspectives because they face different circumstances,” said Evans.
So when you are trying to make sense of what feels like a giant whirlpool of information and opinions, remember to look for quality sources to educate yourself. As we collectively move through this situation, remember that we are all fallen human beings who need patience and grace, but that we serve a God who is present even in the darkest of times.
