Question: When’s the last time you had a goldfish? And by that, I mean the snack. The cracker. Not the pet. The reason I ask is because I recently had some and I was honestly pretty let down. I remembered them as legendary from when I was younger, but this time they weren’t. Why? I’m not sure. But it was weird. I really expected them to be good and they were just okay. Slightly above average. I quickly pivoted to the Cheez-It.
Why do I bring this up? Because there are a few teams in the NFL this year that remind me of goldfish crackers. They should be great, but they have let me down. Similarly, some teams have really surprised me in the opposite way. Overall, this has been a season of assumptions being proven wrong and expectations going unmet. On that note, week 9 of the NFL season schedule has come and gone, and I think it’s time for power rankings at the halfway point.
Before we dive in: I won’t go into detail on every team – some of them (at least in my opinion) just make sense in the spots I’ve put them. Because of that, I’ll only give commentary on teams that really warrant it.
32. Arizona Cardinals
This last spot was a bit of a toss-up and could’ve gone several different ways. Some may be tempted to say they’re tanking, which may or may not be true. Whatever the reason, this team is obviously prioritizing something higher than winning.
31. New York Giants
30. Carolina Panthers
There are moments when Bryce Young shows obvious potential. In fact, despite how much Carolina fans might be frustrated and upset, this is a pretty normal rookie season for a quarterback. Not everyone can show up and immediately change the entire organization; those situations are the outliers, not the norm. Regardless, this team has a litany of issues and needs significant restructuring.
29. New England Patriots
We are now firmly in the era of the Patriots being a below-average football team. This doesn’t really affect the power rankings, but I felt it was important to point out. It’s just insane. Also, I put the Patriots above the Panthers purely because they somehow beat the Bills.
28. Chicago Bears
27. Green Bay Packers
26. Los Angeles Rams
It feels strange to say, given how recently the Rams were the most feared team in the league, but it’s looking like they are becoming irrelevant. I’m not sure what the main takeaway from their story should be, but maybe they can serve as a cautionary tale about betting your entire budget and trading power on a single season (then again, maybe not a great cautionary tale since they won the Super Bowl).
25. Las Vegas Raiders
24. Washington Commanders
24. Denver Broncos
To be honest, I was tempted to put the Broncos lower. But at the end of the day, fair is fair. They beat the Chiefs. And regardless of their serious dysfunction on the micro level, they have some athletes who can make an impact. For these reasons, I award them the coveted No. 23 spot instead of 24.
22. Tennessee Titans
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense might not win championships, but it can take a team out of games they should be in. I can’t see the Bucs doing very much for the rest of the season unless their defense can become less of a liability.
20. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons fan base seems to be split between the “it’s so over” crowd and the “we’re so back” crowd. If I had to say which crowd is bigger, I think it has to be the pessimists. The team shows moments of great potential and has some truly stellar players. Despite all this, they find a way to lose. What’s the reason? I’m not sure, but my short answer is play calling. And the quarterbacks.
19. Indianapolis Colts
18. Minnesota Vikings
17. New York Jets
Sad situation. Shout out to the defense though.
16. Houston Texans
CJ Stroud looks good. Really good. You’ve earned this No. 16 spot, Texans. Enjoy it, boys.
15. New Orleans Saints
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
13. Cleveland Browns.
There are those who think this team can really put something together in the playoffs. I don’t buy it. They haven’t cracked the top 10 yet. They are up to a whole lot of nothing.
12. Seattle Seahawks
11. Buffalo Bills
This team should be in talks for the Super Bowl, and in some people’s minds, they still are. Unfortunately, I think the truth is that they are struggling this year and will continue to struggle.
10. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are another team that has underperformed expectations, but I think the reasons are more complicated. They seem to be more consistent now that they’ve gotten past some injury struggles. Also, I think Herbert has proven himself to be an elite QB. If you take that as a fact, then it follows that poor performance is a statistical outlier from the mean, not a sign of a new pattern.
9. Dallas Cowboys
8. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are performing quite a bit below expectations. However, if you look at how the season has unfolded, it seems they’re just taking longer to get warmed up than some of the other contending teams. My personal take: it took them a bit but they’re getting there.
7. Miami Dolphins
Depending on what team they’re playing, the Dolphins can look either below-average or absolutely unstoppable. That’s not a recipe for much success in the playoffs, but I think they’ll have a good season. No. 7 seems to suit them.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Detroit Lions
I’m only sort of starting to buy into the Lions hype. Call me a skeptic.
4. San Francisco 49ers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
It would be so easy to try to make a Taylor Swift joke here.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a good team and have a great record. Here’s the problem: from an analytics perspective, their winning is unsustainable. They have several one-possession wins over teams that just aren’t very good. If your amazing record is built on a string of 50/50 games going the right way for you, it may be less steady than you think. Statistically, things regress back to the mean, and 50/50 games can’t all keep going the same way forever.
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have played 9 games and have given up 9 touchdowns. Top to bottom, they are a complete team. It’s true, their record isn’t as good as the Eagles, but the Ravens have played some truly good teams and have absolutely crushed them (see the Seahawks and the Lions). I genuinely would not be surprised to see them in the Super Bowl.
