The 2025 Oscars: Breaking Down The Best Picture Race

On Mar. 2, 2025, all questions will be answered.

After covering Best Actor and Actress, it’s time to break down the race for Best Picture.

The ten films competing for the top prize at the 97th Academy Awards are as follows: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance” and “Wicked.”

Winning the Oscar for Best Picture is not just about being a critical darling or a box office success — although those factors help. Instead, the Academy uses a preferential ballot system to determine the category, meaning voters rank their choices rather than simply picking a winner. This system rewards consensus favorites over polarizing films. In recent years, winners like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “CODA” have also benefited from broad support across different Academy branches. Films that are widely respected — but not universally beloved — may struggle under this system, as they can be pushed down in ranked-choice voting.

Beyond the voting process, industry recognition is key to Oscar success. Five major precursor awards help predict the Best Picture winner: The Producers Guild of America (PGA), the Directors Guild of America (DGA), the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA).

While indie film “Anora” has been considered the front-runner in this particular Oscar race, only “Anora” and “A Complete Unknown” have secured nominations from all five major industry groups. This suggests the necessary broad support — but the preferential ballot could shake things up.

One of the biggest surprises this year came from the BAFTA awards, as religious critique “Conclave” upset “The Brutalist” for Best Picture. The BAFTA win suggests “Conclave” has broader international appeal than some of the other films on this list — and it could perform better than expected at the Oscars. Despite its blockbuster success, “Dune: Part Two” faces an uphill battle, since big-budget sequels rarely win Best Picture — “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” being a notable exception.

Leading the pack with 13 nominations, “Emilia Pérez” has become the most talked-about film of the year, and not just because of its award count. The French-produced, Spanish-language musical follows a notorious cartel boss who undergoes gender reassignment surgery in an attempt to leave behind a life of crime. The film’s bold subject matter has ignited discourse from both ends of the political spectrum, making it one of the most polarizing nominees in recent history. With Karla Sofía Gascón becoming the first trans-identifying performer to receive an acting nomination, “Emilia Pérez,” directed by Jacques Audiard, has undeniably made Oscar history. Whether that momentum carries it to a Best Picture win is one of the more anticipated questions waiting to be answered.

Sean Baker’s “Anora” follows a Brooklyn stripper who unexpectedly finds herself married to the son of a Russian oligarch, combining humor, heart and sharp social commentary. With a breakout performance from Mikey Madison, “Anora” has been gaining steady momentum throughout the awards season, picking up wins at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Awards. If “CODA” (2022) and “Moonlight” (2017) proved anything, it’s that underdog indie films should never be underestimated.

Oscar voters have a fondness for biopics, and “A Complete Unknown” will offer them just that. Timothée Chalamet stars as Bob Dylan in this exploration of the musician’s rise to fame. Whether “A Complete Unknown” can mirror the success of “Oppenheimer” — winning seven awards last year — remains to be seen.

“Conclave” is the quiet contender in this year’s Best Picture race, but it might just have the Academy’s vote. The political thriller, set within the Vatican as a new Pope is selected, has been praised for its gripping narrative and powerhouse performances.

This year’s Best Picture lineup is nothing short of eclectic. From high-budget spectacles to intimate character studies, the nominees reflect the evolving landscape of modern filmmaking. Whether “Anora” continues its domination or “Conclave” pulls off an underdog win, the 97th Academy Awards will be one to remember.